A decade after the UK embarked on a hasty referendum that polarised the country and triggered turmoil, a warning comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking convulsions for which nobody is prepared.
That is the message from two prominent writers from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Unprepared
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a potentially tense and monumental referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction swiftly," O’Toole said. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Aims to Provoke Discussion
The duo have analysed the governmental, economic and societal arguments for any structural alteration in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the matter with a tour of public talks that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns everyone, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We do not want a referendum on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose implications have remained undefined because then you land with an highly polarised community where the losing side are resistant to defeat and the those successful are uncertain quite what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would support.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists say such a time is approaching, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the prospect, leaving it unclear whether or when there will be a national vote.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Partisan language supporting and opposing unification has hidden the absence of serious debate, noted the journalist.
"People tend to be for or against the notion but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to achieve it has largely not occurred. A great deal has occurred in scholarly circles but hardly any elected officials or campaigners are willing to participate with the basics. As an example, what type of nation should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the book, neither author endorses unity or the status quo. Both composes two pieces that aim for objectivity in detailing the argument for a united Ireland and the rationale against, gathering financial and societal statistics, past examples and constitutional models.
Debates encompass flags and symbols, taxes, healthcare systems, pensions, public liabilities and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to enlighten and provoke conversation.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there has not yet occurred a debate," stated the writer. "Dialogue implies an acceptance of the concept that there might be valid points on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where voters report they support unification but oppose greater financial contributions or implementing a new flag to reflect pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"The Irish government must work out what the plan from pro-unification movements is aside from just stating: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we love you'," said the commentator.
Likelihood of Referendum
McBride thinks a national vote in his lifetime is possible and that it might occur suddenly. "You could have just a reckless or a poor or a feckless secretary of state who states: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, justified perspectives, he said. "Somebody will win in this matter and somebody will in the end be defeated but both parties has has valuable insights to learn from the alternative viewpoints."
Request for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster needed to join the debate, urged O’Toole. "This concerns Britain. It is a UK matter equally as it is an Irish matter."
